What Matters in Iraq: Votes or Troops ?

According to a report from the Associated Press, the influence of the United States in Iraq is dwindling along with the decrease in United States troops. Following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the United States, that is, the Bush Administration, set up an occupying organization, the Coalition Provisional Authority, to manage Iraq affairs. Iraqis were then urged to develop a new constitution and ultimately a new form of government. There is little doubt that any new constitution would have to meet with the approval of the occupiers, and that the new government, if not exactly a puppet government, would at least be responsive to the wishes of the United States. Now, the AP report is telling us, that the responsiveness of the Iraqi government is decreasing, along with the decrease of American troops in Iraq.

More specifically, the AP is telling us that Iraqi is now more interested in forming relationships with its neighboring countries, including Iran, than in relying on the U.S. for guidance. The A.P. also tells us that the anti-American cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, is poised to play a major role in the coalition government that is slowly, very slowly, being formed. You may recall that the Coalition Provisional Authority sought the arrest of al-Sadr due to alleged illegal activities by his followers. That arrest never happened, due largely to the fact that al-Sadr's followers included a militia organization, known as the Mahdi Army. In Iraq, as in many parts of the world, it seems that the political process is influenced heavily by the size of the military forces involved. The future government of Iraq may turn out to be based on who has the biggest military force, not who gets the most votes.

At this time, the Obama administration is sticking to its planned withdrawal of troops from Iraq. I do not expect that to change. I believe that the American public wants a withdrawal from our entanglement in Iraq affairs, as does President Obama himself, as do I. But, at the risk of being an unfair cynic, I question whether the Bush administration ever intended to withdraw from Iraq. That administration had no exit plan, but rather intended to stay until the "job was done" although what that job entailed was never spelled out. I suspect that the Bush knew that a withdrawal of U.S. troops would eventually lead to a new government in Iraq, undoubtedly one that was not particularly responsive to the wishes of the U.S. government or the U.S. corporations.