At War with Whom? Al-Qaeda?

Some time ago, the right-wing extremists began to complain that President Obama was not protecting the nation’s security. Why, he wouldn’t even say we were at war! Eventually, Obama made an emphatic statement that we are at war, at war with Al-Qaeda. That seemed to end the discussion of whether or not President Obama believes we are at war. But no one seemed to talk very much about what war with Al-Qaeda means.

By saying the war is with Al-Qaeda, Obama was also saying we are not at war with Iraq or Afghanistan. But that’s obvious, isn’t it? Both of those countries have democratically elected (more or less) governments that are allies of the United States. We would not be at war with governments that the United States was instrumental in creating. But if we’re not at war with Iraq or Afghanistan, why do we have troops in there? Al-Qaeda, which is a terrorist organization of perhaps a few thousand, could be anywhere in the world, probably more in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. While it's not clear why we sent troops to Iraq in the first place, there's no war there now. In fact, we’re in the process of withdrawing those troops. And in Afghanistan the fighting is focused on something called the Taliban. So what happened to the war on Al-Qaeda?

What happened to the war on Al-Qaeda was a bit of slight of hand by the Bush Administration. The Taliban, which had taken control of Afghanistan in recent years, was seen to be “protecting” Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and therefore became a secondary enemy. At the time, the opposition to the Taliban, the so-called “Northern Alliance,” was already fighting what was in effect a civil war. So the United States developed a plan to join the Northern Alliance effort, force the Taliban out, install a new democratic government, and then destroy the Al-Qaeda movement. Except that somehow that last step seems to have been forgotten. Instead the U.S. shifted its attention to a new war in Iraq. Now Obama has reminded us: our war is really with Al-Qaeda.

Although Obama has appeared to escalate the fighting in Afghanistan, with a build-up of troop strength, it's also clear that he is trying to de-escalate the Taliban involvement in that fighting. Obama has invited members of the Taliban to renounce their support of Al-Qaeda and become involved with the democratic political process in Iraq. The President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, is moving even faster to improve relations with the Taliban, perhaps faster than the U.S. military command would like. At one point, likely in a fit of pique over U.S. policy, Karzai made a peculiar threat to join forces with the Taliban himself. While that is not likely to happen, it is likely that some or all of the Taliban leadership will be absorbed into the Afghan political process.

How this will all play out in the next year or so is, to say the least, very uncertain. But all indications are that, despite the increase in troop strength, Obama wants a political solution to the conflict in Afghanistan. Moreover, as President Karzai does not want civilian casualties, and as the Taliban is essentially a guerrilla force capable of blending in with their civilian countrymen, a military “victory” seems almost impossible. In some shape or form, a political solution to the current fighting in Afghanistan will occur in the next year or two.

Only then can we focus on the real war, with Al-Qaeda.